China can possibly exploit Belarus as an hub for the trade and transfer operations to bypass Russia sanctions. This is stated in the summary of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on February 28.
As noted, the Belarusian dictator Oleksandr Lukashenko may facilitate sanctions circumvention schemes between Russia and China during his official trip to Beijing, which lasts from February 28 to March 2.
It is expected that Lukashenko will sign a large package of agreements on the development of joint projects, trade and economic, investment, humanitarian and political cooperation with China.
ISW recalled that Lukashenko previously stated that the Belarusian defense industry can produce weapons because Belarus has access to microelectronics, optics and other imported components from other countries.
Belarus transferred artillery ammunition from its warehouses to Russia to support operations in Ukraine.
CIA Director William Burns said on February 25 that the CIA is confident that the Chinese leadership is considering the possibility of supplying lethal equipment to Russia.
“China may be secretly transferring equipment to Russia through Belarus,” ISW analysts said.
On February 28, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Estonia noted the activation of so-called “peacekeepers” - representatives of China and Belarus.